In the high-stakes world of Karnataka politics, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah remains in power well past the anticipated mid-term leadership change. Despite widespread speculation and reported friction within the Congress ranks—especially with his deputy DK Shivakumar—Siddaramaiah continues to lead the state. What explains his staying power? Here’s a closer look at the seven major reasons behind his continued grip on the Chief Minister’s office:
1. The DK Shivakumar Dilemma: Power Without Position?
Siddaramaiah’s sharp political move came when he challenged DK Shivakumar to step down as the Karnataka Congress president if he wanted the CM seat. This cornered Shivakumar—he couldn’t afford to lose his organizational control, which is crucial for his long-term influence. By calling his bluff, Siddaramaiah reinforced his position without firing a shot. It revealed a clear power imbalance in the current Congress setup in the state.
2. National Calculations Trump State-Level Deals
The Congress high command is not willing to risk disruption in one of its few strongholds ahead of crucial elections. With states like Bihar and Maharashtra heading into polls, replacing a sitting OBC Chief Minister could backfire nationally. Siddaramaiah’s image as a backward-class leader and his strong base make him a safe bet for stability—something the party needs right now more than internal experimentation.
3. Handling of Crisis Incidents Boosted His Standing
Despite being at the helm during difficult events—including the RCB celebration stampede in Bengaluru—Siddaramaiah came out relatively unscathed. Blame fell more heavily on his deputies and local administrative figures. The incident, though tragic, did not dent his political armor as expected. On the contrary, it seemed to further expose fissures in Shivakumar’s administrative grip.
4. Legal Landmines Around DK Shivakumar
Shivakumar remains under the shadow of various legal investigations, including money laundering charges. While these cases haven’t reached a decisive conclusion, their mere presence makes him a risky choice for the top job. The Congress leadership may be unwilling to hand over Karnataka’s government to someone who could potentially be targeted again, causing further instability.
5. Lack of a Viable Third Candidate
If Siddaramaiah were to be removed, who replaces him? Shivakumar is the obvious contender, but his legal baggage complicates matters. There are no strong alternative leaders who can unify the state’s diverse voter base as effectively. Even national figures like Mallikarjun Kharge wouldn’t step into a volatile state-level role. Without a clear Plan B, the leadership has chosen to stick with the known and tested.
6. Personal Legacy and Record-Breaking Ambitions
Siddaramaiah reportedly has his eye on a historic milestone: becoming the longest-serving Chief Minister in Karnataka’s post-independence history. He’s within striking distance of Devraj Urs’ record. This ambition fuels his determination to stay in power—and he’s made it clear to the party that he intends to complete the full five-year term unless circumstances change dramatically.
7. Congress Wants Peace, Not Internal Revolts
The Congress has been bruised by leadership tussles in other states, notably Rajasthan and Punjab. Karnataka is a political success story the party wants to protect. Any internal rebellion—especially from Shivakumar’s camp—could unravel a delicate balance. So instead of risking a showdown, the party has opted for status quo and delayed any power-sharing transition. Senior Congress observers say they’d rather lose an ego battle than lose the entire state.
The Backdrop: A Rotational CM Deal That Never Was?
When the Congress won Karnataka in May 2023, speculation quickly swirled around a “rotational chief minister” deal between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar—each would serve 2.5 years. While never formally confirmed, it was widely assumed. Yet, one year later, there’s been no official communication about a leadership handover. In fact, Siddaramaiah has repeatedly stated that he’ll remain for the full term.
This apparent reversal has stirred unease in Shivakumar’s camp but hasn’t led to open revolt—likely due to the central leadership’s caution and Shivakumar’s desire to avoid being blamed for destabilizing the government.
Congress Strategy: Stability Over Popularity
The Congress leadership in Delhi views Karnataka as a critical pillar of its 2024 and 2026 electoral strategies. In a time when the party’s footprint has shrunk in many states, Karnataka represents a model governance opportunity. Losing that to infighting or legal distractions could damage national morale. Siddaramaiah, despite facing corruption accusations and internal criticism, offers predictability.
That said, party insiders suggest that Shivakumar has been assured of a leadership opportunity—eventually. The message is: wait for the right time.
Public Perception: Has It Changed?
Surveys and anecdotal feedback suggest that Siddaramaiah still enjoys reasonable popularity, especially among rural and OBC voters. While urban constituencies have shown some discontent over administration and infrastructure issues, the Congress base hasn’t eroded significantly. The five key guarantees announced by his government—free electricity, financial support for women, job assistance—continue to win support in rural regions.
Conclusion: A Strategic Pause, Not a Final Word
Siddaramaiah’s survival isn’t just about personal ambition—it’s a blend of national electoral arithmetic, inner-party realities, and the absence of a clean alternative. While DK Shivakumar remains a powerful force and potential successor, the timing isn’t right—for the party or the state.
The Congress leadership has chosen stability over speculation, rewarding Siddaramaiah with continuity. Whether this calm will hold until 2026—or erupt into a full-blown succession struggle—remains to be seen.