In recent months, Turkey’s unwavering support for Pakistan has led to a significant diplomatic rift with India, particularly following the 2025 India-Pakistan standoff. This geopolitical tension has not only affected political relations but has also reverberated through the aviation sector, where Turkey has been expanding its presence in India. The juxtaposition of military alliances and burgeoning civil aviation ties presents a complex scenario for both nations.
Geopolitical Context
The 2025 standoff between India and Pakistan was marked by intense military confrontations and diplomatic upheavals. India accused Pakistan of sponsoring a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, leading to the expulsion of Pakistani diplomats and a suspension of visa services. In retaliation, India launched missile strikes on Pakistan, targeting militant groups. Turkey, a long-standing ally of Pakistan, expressed strong support for Islamabad during this crisis. This included supplying military equipment and participating in joint military exercises with Pakistan. Turkey’s actions were perceived by India as an alignment against its interests, leading to a deterioration in diplomatic relations .
Impact on Aviation Relations
Despite the diplomatic fallout, Turkey’s aviation industry has been making significant inroads into the Indian market. Turkish Airlines, the national carrier, has been actively seeking to expand its operations in India. In 2023, the airline requested the Indian government to increase the number of weekly flights from 14 to 28 under the existing bilateral air service agreement. Additionally, Turkish Airlines expressed interest in operating flights to six new Indian cities, including Ahmedabad and Chennai, to cater to the growing demand among Indian travelers .
The expansion of Turkish Airlines’ operations in India is part of a broader strategy to tap into the lucrative Indian travel market. In the first half of 2024, Turkey witnessed a 33.2% increase in Indian visitors, totaling 165,000 tourists. This surge in tourism has been attributed to Turkey’s appeal as a holiday destination and the growing connectivity between the two countries .
Public Sentiment and Boycott Movements
The diplomatic tensions have not gone unnoticed by the Indian public. Following Turkey’s support for Pakistan, there has been a noticeable decline in Indian tourists visiting Turkey. Travel agencies have reported a 60% drop in bookings and a 250% increase in cancellations for Turkey and Azerbaijan, another country that expressed support for Pakistan during the conflict . Prominent Indian industrialist Harsh Goenka highlighted that Indian tourists contributed over ₹4,000 crore to the economies of Turkey and Azerbaijan in 2024 alone, suggesting that a boycott could have significant economic implications .
In response to the public sentiment, several travel agencies have suspended bookings to Turkey and Azerbaijan, redirecting travelers to alternative destinations such as Greece, Thailand, and Vietnam. This shift reflects the broader impact of geopolitical events on consumer behavior and international tourism.
Economic Implications
The strained relations between India and Turkey have economic ramifications beyond the tourism sector. Turkey’s defense industry has been a significant supplier to Pakistan, providing advanced military equipment and technology. This includes the supply of T129 ATAK helicopters, MILGEM-class corvettes, and various defense systems. Additionally, Turkish defense firms have engaged in joint ventures with Pakistan to develop advanced weaponry, further deepening the military collaboration between the two nations .
India’s response to these developments has been multifaceted. The Indian government has imposed restrictions on defense imports from Turkey, citing national security concerns. This move aims to reduce India’s reliance on Turkish military equipment and to send a clear message regarding the importance of aligning with India’s strategic interests.
Looking Ahead
The future of India-Turkey relations hinges on several factors, including the resolution of the Kashmir issue, Turkey’s stance on terrorism, and the broader geopolitical dynamics in the region. While economic and cultural exchanges continue, the underlying political tensions pose challenges to the development of a robust bilateral relationship. The aviation sector, which has been a symbol of growing connectivity, now stands at a crossroads, reflecting the complexities of international relations in a globalized world.
Conclusion
Turkey’s support for Pakistan during the 2025 standoff has significantly strained its diplomatic relations with India, casting a shadow over the burgeoning aviation ties between the two countries. As both nations navigate these turbulent waters, the interplay between geopolitics and civil aviation will continue to shape their bilateral interactions in the years to come.